Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
