A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
